Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters have retaken control of the main airport in Mekelle, the capital of the northern Tigray region, according to multiple sources, marking a major reversal in the rapidly changing conflict between the government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF. The development comes only days after Tigrayan forces seized the airport and other strategic locations, triggering the suspension of commercial flights and raising fears that Ethiopia could be sliding back toward a much larger war in the north. (Reuters)
The situation developed even further on October 4, with Reuters reporting that Ethiopian government forces and allied militias had also regained control of Mekelle itself. The TPLF said it had withdrawn from the regional capital and that its regional government would temporarily operate from another location. Sources cited by Reuters, including a humanitarian worker and a Mekelle resident, confirmed that government forces had entered and taken control of the city. (Reuters)
The rapid change in control represents one of the most significant developments since fighting intensified in September. It also raises a much larger question: whether the renewed conflict can be contained inside Tigray or whether it could develop into a broader regional confrontation involving Ethiopia's neighbours, particularly Eritrea.
From Airport Seizure to Government Counteroffensive
The latest crisis began with a major offensive launched by the TPLF and an opposition alliance on September 23. Tigrayan fighters seized several airports and advanced in parts of the region, including the capture of Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle.
The airport is strategically important because it is the principal air gateway to Tigray's capital. Its capture immediately affected civilian connectivity. Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Mekelle as well as the Tigrayan cities of Axum and Shire following the fighting. The disruption was particularly significant for a region where roads, communications and other forms of infrastructure have already been badly affected by years of conflict. (AP News)
The government subsequently launched a counteroffensive, with federal forces and allied fighters moving toward Mekelle along several axes. By the beginning of October, reports indicated that government forces had regained ground in parts of Tigray and neighbouring Afar.
The recapture of the airport became one of the clearest indications that the balance on the ground was changing.
Reuters reported on October 3 that three sources said the Ethiopian federal military had retaken the main airport in Mekelle. A pro-government militia also said it had taken control of the airport and was clearing the city. (Reuters)
At the time, however, the precise situation inside Mekelle remained difficult to establish because communications networks had been severely disrupted and access to the region was restricted.
That uncertainty has been a defining feature of the latest conflict.
Mekelle Changes Hands Again
The subsequent confirmation that government forces had entered Mekelle itself marked a more substantial development.
Reuters reported on October 4 that Ethiopian government forces and allied militias had regained control of the Tigrayan capital. The TPLF confirmed its withdrawal, saying the regional government would temporarily move elsewhere. A source close to the pro-government Tigray Peace Forces said its fighters entered central Mekelle on Saturday afternoon, followed by Ethiopian federal troops. A humanitarian source and a resident also confirmed government control of the city. (Reuters)
The development represents a significant setback for the TPLF, which had launched the September offensive and briefly regained control of important territory.
But control of a city during an active conflict does not necessarily mean the underlying political or military confrontation has been resolved.
The TPLF remains a major political and military force in Tigray, and its withdrawal from Mekelle does not mean the organisation has disappeared. Its decision to leave the city rather than fight a prolonged battle there also appears to reflect concerns about the destruction that could result from urban warfare.
The TPLF had made a similar decision during the earlier conflict, when its forces withdrew from Mekelle as federal forces advanced in 2020.
The current situation therefore remains highly fluid.
A City Under Uncertainty
Residents of Mekelle have been caught between competing armed forces while struggling to obtain reliable information.
Before the latest government advance, residents told international news organisations that communications outages made it difficult to determine which forces controlled particular parts of the city. There were also concerns about looting and the breakdown of public order.
The Associated Press reported that civilians were seen looting government offices and removing equipment from police headquarters after TPLF-allied fighters withdrew. (AP News)
Such scenes illustrate the fragile security environment facing Mekelle.
For civilians, the immediate issue is not simply which political faction controls the regional administration. It is whether electricity, telecommunications, food distribution, medical services, transport and basic public administration can continue functioning.
Tigray's population has already experienced enormous disruption from the 2020 to 2022 war. The renewed fighting is therefore taking place in a society that has not fully recovered from the previous conflict.
Another prolonged confrontation could deepen those existing humanitarian problems.
The Shadow of the 2020 to 2022 War
The current escalation is inseparable from the legacy of Ethiopia's previous Tigray war.
Between 2020 and 2022, Ethiopian federal forces and their allies fought the TPLF in a conflict that devastated large parts of the region. Eritrean forces also participated on the side of the Ethiopian government.
The war ended with a peace agreement in November 2022.
The agreement reduced large-scale fighting, but it did not eliminate the political disagreements that had contributed to the conflict. Questions surrounding regional autonomy, the status of disputed territories, disarmament, political representation and relations between the TPLF and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government remained unresolved.
The latest fighting is therefore occurring against an already fragile political background.
The African Union has urged restraint and warned that renewed hostilities threaten the 2022 peace agreement. (AP News)
The significance of that warning should not be underestimated.
The peace agreement prevented the previous conflict from continuing indefinitely. If the current confrontation develops into another sustained war, the humanitarian and economic consequences could be severe.
Why the Airport Matters
Airports are strategic assets in any conflict, but Alula Aba Nega Airport has an additional importance because of its role in connecting Mekelle with the rest of Ethiopia.
When the TPLF seized the airport on September 23, commercial aviation to Tigray was suspended. That immediately reduced civilian mobility and complicated the movement of humanitarian personnel and supplies.
The airport is located approximately 10 kilometres from central Mekelle, making it an important logistical position for any force seeking to establish control over the capital. (Al Jazeera)
Its recapture therefore has both symbolic and practical significance.
For the federal government, control of the airport strengthens its ability to move personnel and supplies into the region.
For the TPLF, losing the airport removes an important strategic position and reinforces the broader loss of territory during the government's counteroffensive.
For civilians, however, the most important question will be whether the airport can eventually return to normal commercial operations.
That remains uncertain while the security situation is unsettled.
Ethiopia's Government Faces a New Security Challenge
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government now faces the difficult task of consolidating control over Mekelle while preventing the conflict from becoming a prolonged insurgency.
Capturing a regional capital is one thing.
Maintaining security, restoring public services and establishing a workable political arrangement is another.
The Ethiopian federal government may rely on allied Tigrayan forces, particularly the Tigray Peace Forces, to assist with regional security. Analysts cited by AP said the government could potentially leave local security responsibilities to this group, which includes former members of the Tigray Defense Forces who broke with the TPLF. (AP News)
Such an arrangement could reduce the federal military's immediate burden, but it also carries political and security complications.
The Tigray Peace Forces and the TPLF emerged from the same broader political and military environment, but they are now on opposing sides of the current confrontation.
Whether this produces stability or simply creates another layer of armed competition will depend on how the post-conflict security structure develops.
The TPLF's Withdrawal Does Not End the Conflict
The TPLF's decision to withdraw from Mekelle should not automatically be interpreted as the end of resistance.
The group has significant experience operating in difficult terrain and maintaining armed structures outside major urban centres. The previous war demonstrated how quickly a conflict can change from conventional territorial warfare into a more fragmented struggle.
The current political coalition opposing the federal government also extends beyond Tigray.
Reuters reported that the opposition alliance has been accused by Ethiopia of receiving support from Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt. Those countries have denied the allegations. (Reuters)
This means that the battle for Mekelle is occurring within a much larger regional dispute.
The longer the confrontation continues, the more difficult it could become to separate Ethiopia's internal political conflict from the strategic interests of neighbouring states.
Ethiopia and Eritrea Are Now at the Centre of Concern
One of the most alarming aspects of the renewed fighting is the deterioration in Ethiopia's relationship with Eritrea.
The two countries were once close allies during the previous Tigray war. Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian federal troops against the TPLF.
That relationship has since deteriorated dramatically.
Ethiopia recently ordered 10 Eritrean diplomats to leave the country and announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara. Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic ties with Ethiopia. (Reuters)
The diplomatic rupture comes at an extremely sensitive moment.
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting the opposition alliance led by the TPLF. Eritrea has denied the allegations and has itself accused Addis Ababa of pursuing hostile policies.
The disagreement is also connected to the larger dispute over Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea.
Ethiopia is landlocked and has repeatedly stressed the importance of secure access to the sea for its economy and national security. Eritrea, which controls a long Red Sea coastline, views Ethiopia's ambitions with deep suspicion.
The two countries therefore have several unresolved strategic disagreements.
The renewed Tigray conflict has brought those disagreements back into the centre of regional politics.
Why the Horn of Africa Is Watching
The Horn of Africa is one of the world's most strategically sensitive regions.
Ethiopia is Africa's second-most populous country and one of the continent's most important political and military powers. Eritrea controls a strategically important Red Sea coastline. Sudan is experiencing its own devastating civil war. Egypt has major interests in the Nile and Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
A major conflict involving Ethiopia and Eritrea could therefore have consequences far beyond Tigray.
The United States has already urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to exercise restraint and return to dialogue. US State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott warned that growing cross-border tensions could affect the wider region and said the Horn of Africa could not sustain another major military conflict and humanitarian crisis. (AP News)
The African Union has similarly called for restraint.
These interventions reflect concern that the latest fighting could evolve beyond an internal Ethiopian confrontation.
The Egypt and Sudan Dimension
Ethiopia's accusations against Egypt and Sudan add another layer to the crisis.
Addis Ababa has accused both countries, along with Eritrea, of supporting the opposition alliance. Cairo and Khartoum have denied the accusations. (Reuters)
Egypt's relationship with Ethiopia is already complicated by the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.
Sudan, meanwhile, is fighting its own devastating internal war, making the possibility of additional regional instability particularly concerning.
If outside governments become directly involved in the Tigray conflict, the consequences could be much greater than those of another isolated Ethiopian civil conflict.
The key question is therefore whether regional governments will seek to contain the confrontation or become increasingly involved in it.
Drone Warfare Raises the Stakes
Another notable feature of the latest fighting is the reported use of drones.
Reuters has reported claims that opposition forces carried out drone attacks on Addis Ababa, although details remain difficult to independently verify. The reported attacks would represent a major geographical expansion of the conflict because Addis Ababa is hundreds of kilometres from the principal battle areas in northern Ethiopia. (Reuters)
Ethiopian authorities subsequently imposed restrictions on drone flights over Addis Ababa.
If armed opposition groups are able to conduct sustained long-range drone operations, the conflict could become considerably more difficult for the government to contain.
Drones can provide relatively inexpensive ways for armed groups to strike military infrastructure, gather intelligence and create psychological pressure far from traditional front lines.
Their presence also complicates the security environment around Ethiopia's capital.
The Humanitarian Consequences Could Be Severe
The greatest concern remains the civilian population.
Tigray has already experienced years of displacement, food insecurity, infrastructure destruction and disruption of healthcare. Many communities are still recovering from the previous war.
Renewed fighting threatens to reverse whatever progress has been made.
The disruption of roads and commercial flights can quickly affect food supplies and medical access. Communications blackouts make it harder for humanitarian organisations to assess needs and reach vulnerable communities.
The situation in neighbouring Afar is also concerning. Reuters reported that fighting there had forced tens of thousands of people to flee their homes, according to Valerie Browning of the Afar Pastoralist Development Association. (Reuters)
If the conflict spreads into additional regions, the number of displaced civilians could increase rapidly.
That is one reason international calls for restraint have become more urgent.
The Risk to the 2022 Peace Agreement
The 2022 peace agreement remains the central reference point for understanding the current crisis.
That agreement ended the devastating war between Ethiopia's federal government and the TPLF. It created a framework for ending hostilities and beginning a political process.
The new fighting demonstrates how fragile that settlement has become.
The African Union's warning that the renewed conflict threatens the agreement reflects the possibility that the political process could unravel entirely. (AP News)
If the agreement collapses, both sides could return to the kind of sustained warfare that characterised the earlier conflict.
The recapture of Mekelle could provide the federal government with a short-term military advantage, but it does not automatically resolve the political disputes that produced the confrontation.
A lasting settlement would require more than territorial control.
It would require political negotiations.
What Happens Next in Mekelle?
The immediate priority will be restoring security in Mekelle.
Reports of looting after the TPLF withdrawal show how quickly a security vacuum can develop when armed forces leave a city.
Federal authorities will need to establish functioning security institutions while preventing reprisals and further civilian displacement.
The presence of allied Tigrayan forces could help fill the immediate security gap, but the long-term political status of those forces remains unclear.
Another important issue will be whether the TPLF remains outside the city and attempts to regroup elsewhere.
If it does, the conflict could shift from fighting for control of Mekelle to a broader campaign across rural Tigray.
That could make the conflict more difficult to end.
A Major Turning Point, But Not Yet a Resolution
The retaking of Alula Aba Nega Airport was initially the main development reported from Mekelle. The subsequent confirmation that government forces had regained the city itself makes the development considerably more significant.
For the TPLF, the loss of Mekelle represents a major territorial setback.
For the federal government, it demonstrates that the counteroffensive has quickly reversed some of the opposition alliance's initial gains.
But military control is only one measure of the conflict.
The deeper questions concern whether Ethiopia can prevent another prolonged war, whether the TPLF will return to negotiations, whether Eritrea and other neighbouring countries remain outside the fighting, and whether the 2022 peace agreement can be preserved.
Those questions remain unanswered.
The Bigger Picture
What is happening in Mekelle is not simply another change in battlefield control.
It is a warning about how quickly Ethiopia's unresolved political divisions can return to armed conflict.
The TPLF's seizure of the airport on September 23 demonstrated its ability to mount a major offensive. The federal government's subsequent counteroffensive and recapture of Mekelle demonstrate the military capabilities still available to Addis Ababa.
Neither development by itself establishes a path to lasting peace.
The greatest danger is that the conflict becomes a cycle in which one side captures territory, the other launches a counterattack, civilians are displaced, neighbouring states become involved and political negotiations become increasingly difficult.
That pattern has already produced enormous suffering in Ethiopia.
The international community therefore has a clear interest in encouraging restraint and political dialogue while humanitarian access is maintained.
For the people of Mekelle and the wider Tigray region, the immediate hope is more basic: that the fighting stops, communications return, essential services are restored and another generation is not forced to endure years of war.
The recapture of the airport, followed by the reported return of government forces to Mekelle, is an important military development. But it should not be mistaken for the end of the crisis.
The Tigray conflict has entered another dangerous phase, and the direction it takes next could depend as much on diplomacy as on what happens on the battlefield.
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